Economists monthly survey the possibility of short-term interest rate cuts in the future economic st-g-area meru

Economists monthly survey: the possibility of short-term interest rate cuts in the future economic stability is no longer consistent economists believe that the RMB will continue to depreciate against the end of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is 6.75. In the forecast of economists, 1/3 is expected by the end of the RMB exchange rate will be a month exchange rate (August 31st dollar 6.69) rose last month, only one economist holding this view. In August 24th the central bank to restart the 14 day reverse repo, and guide the cost of funds to lower the upper reaches of the financial sector and reduce leverage, but also provides a more ample liquidity for the interbank market. Future monetary policy is expected to continue in the steady partial loose, the possibility of a smaller rate cut in the short term, drop the possibility of decline. September 2016 first financial chief economist confidence index continued to rise since July of this year, and stand on the 50 line. This month to participate in the prediction of the indicators of the economist, predicted value is lower than the number of 50 lines accounted for all the proportion of the population decreased from 23% to 66.7% in July, fell significantly, showing the future of Chinese economy will gradually improve, stable. Confidence index: standing on the 50 line in September 2016, the first financial chief economist confidence index was 50.07, since last September, the second time on the line to become the second only to the high value of the year in May of this year. The number of people who were forecast to be below the 50 line this month, the proportion of the total number of all the number of people fell from July’s 66.7% to $23%. Among them, Societe Generale Securities Wang Han Huarong securities and Wu Ge are the most optimistic estimates of 50.5, the country gives Xu Hongcai exchange center the most pessimistic confidence index 49.6. Minsheng securities, said Qiu Xiaohua, from the high frequency data, due to seasonal factors subside, August economic data is expected to be slightly more optimistic than in July. But from a longer perspective, the economy is still facing greater downward pressure on the supply side to increase capacity, but also need to strengthen demand management. Fed rate hike is expected to heat up in the near future, superimposed fourth quarter base effect CPI rose year on year, monetary easing is not large. The month is expected to follow the fiscal policy should be the main underpinning, possible measures include speeding up PPP landing and revitalize the stock funds and issue special treasury bonds. Price: April CPI rose continuously shrinking, PPI decline narrowed significantly the results of the survey show, August CPI growth rate of the average forecast of 1.66%, compared with the Bureau of statistics released in July (1.8%) value continued to decline, the continuation of the previous 4 consecutive months of contraction trend. The 23 economists in the study, the state information center forecast Zhu Baoliang to a maximum value of 1.9%, and a minimum of 1.5% from China bank Chen Weidong, Zhou Hao Pan Xiangdong, the Milky Way Commerzbank securities and JP Morgan Zhu Haibin. August PPI year on year growth forecast average of -0.92%, compared with the published value of -1.7% decline narrowed significantly in July. The prediction of the highest value of -0.4% from Huarong securities Wu Ge, and the lowest value of -1.4% from the economic center of the country Xu great talent. Everbright Securities Xu predicted that consumer inflation will continue to slow down, industrial prices will rise rapidly. His watch.相关的主题文章: